BNP Paribas - The bank for a changing world
7 days of Economics: Conflicting perspectives raise eyebrows
Fri, 13 Jul 2018 16:41:44 +0200
Speculative positioning in VIX futures shows investors expect volatility to remain low, which implies an absence of growth orinflation shocks The flattening of the US yield curve shows investors expect slower growthThese conflicting views may reflect differences in investment horizon but in the end,... - (source:
Investing—why choose Asia?
Tue, 10 Jul 2018 17:11:35 +0200
A spring awakening is sweeping through Asia’s financial markets, which have become increasingly popular among investors. Asia constitutes a strong growth region, notably for BNP Paribas Asset Management. The Group has positioned itself as a leading investor in the region, while integrating Environ... - (source:
7 days of Economics - Germany: Still relaxed about softer sentiment
Fri, 29 Jun 2018 16:56:34 +0200
German business climate indicators have eased since the start of the year, a movement which is broad-based Very recently, some indicators have stabilisedCorporate uncertainty, as measured by the dispersion of the assessments of the economic outlook, has not increased yet despite concern about a trad... - (source:
7 days of Economics: The headwind of tariff uncertainty
Fri, 22 Jun 2018 17:11:25 +0200
Worries about tariff increases are a headwind to growth because of the uncertainty about the outcome and its timing Global value chains complicate the analysisTariffs increase input prices in the importing country and weigh on order books in the exporting countrySince the start of the year, both inp... - (source:
7 days of Economics - Eurozone, ECB: nervousness postponed
Fri, 15 Jun 2018 17:30:59 +0200
Skilful expectations management meant that the announcement of the end of the net purchases of the QE program didn’t cause any stirs Markets have applauded the introduction of date and state dependent guidanceIn the course of next year, nervousness will increase again as investors will wonder whet... - (source:
7 days of Economics- Italy : Markets act as the boy who cried wolf
Fri, 01 Jun 2018 17:15:43 +0200
Political uncertainty in Italy has caused market turmoil with significant spillover effects within but also beyond the Eurozone Contagion within the eurozone was of a different nature than in 2011With a new government in place, attention will now focus on its economic policy, in particular in terms ... - (source:
7 days of Economics - Eurozone : Domestic support, global risks
Fri, 25 May 2018 16:29:13 +0200
The ECB meeting account shows a central bank which is confident about the growth outlook despite the recent softness of data The concerns relate to global factors which have become more prominent: the threat of trade protectionismThis concern isalso echoed by the Federal Reserve The much expected ma... - (source:
7 days of Economics - Emerging markets: a sudden chill
Fri, 18 May 2018 17:10:22 +0200
In recent years, emerging market issuers, in particular corporates, have raised huge amounts of USD debt, thereby increasingtheir sensitivity to an appreciation of the dollar Rising US treasury yields, a sudden strengthening of the dollar and countryspecificissues have triggered considerable portfol... - (source:
7 days of Economics: Uncertainty and bad inflation risk on the rise
Fri, 11 May 2018 15:07:17 +0200
Markets have reacted in a calm way to the US decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal Despite the increase ingeopolitical uncertainty, there has been no flight to safety and US treasury yields have followed oil higher Should oil pricescontinue to increase, this would end up acting as a headwi... - (source:
7 days of Economics - US Federal Reserve: the challenges of a symmetric inflation goal
Fri, 04 May 2018 16:38:44 +0200
Inflation in the US is very close to the Fed’s goal and the FOMC expects it will remain like that for quite some time The FOMC insists that its inflation goal is symmetric. This gives more leeway in managing the tightening cycle If inflation is overshooting, it would imply a higher market sensitiv... - (source:
7 days of Economics - Eurozone: softer sentiment, fundamentals still strong
Fri, 27 Apr 2018 17:19:16 +0200
Sentiment indicators have softened globally in recent months, including in the eurozone The historical experience is varied although cyclical declines in eurozone sentiment have tended to last quite a number of months Considering the current strong fundamentals, one would expect that weaker sentimen... - (source:
7 days of Economics - Eurozone: Pockets of animal spirits?
Fri, 20 Apr 2018 17:07:37 +0200
The assessment of the general economic situation by the highest income quartile is more cyclically sensitive than the one by the lowest income quartile The former has become particularly positive since early 2017 although the relative assessment of the financial situation has not improved Possibly, ... - (source:
7 days of Economics - Eurozone: A peak in consumer confidence?
Fri, 13 Apr 2018 16:54:15 +0200
Turning points in the assessment of making major purchases lead those of the overall consumer confidence indicator The difference of how top and bottom quartile income households assess their spending on major purchases is highly cyclical and its turning points lead those of consumer confidence Base... - (source:
“2018 BNP Paribas Wealth Management Private Assets Survey” reveals private investors’ increasing appetite for Private Equity and Private Real Estate funds
Thu, 12 Apr 2018 10:00:01 +0200
Conducted by Scorpio Partnership for BNP Paribas Wealth Management, the survey explores the behaviours and trends of private investors and non-investors in Private Equity and Real Estate (PERE) funds. The report, which polled 337 High Net Worth Individuals (HNWIs) with more than USD5 million in inve... - (source:
7 days of Economics - Eurozone: Pent-up consumption, sign of hope or concern?
Fri, 06 Apr 2018 16:06:56 +0200
In most eurozone countries, durable goods consumption in relation to income is still below the previous cyclical peak Consumer confidence tends to be higher than the previous peak This combination suggests there is pent-up consumer demand but it could also reflect lingering households’ concerns ab... - (source:
7 days of Economics - Eurozone: pent-up corporate investment demand?
Fri, 30 Mar 2018 18:20:20 +0200
Eurozone business investment in relation to GDP is still below the previous cyclical peak but the difference is small, implying that the argument of pent-up demand isn’t that strong However, the picture varies a lot depending on the country In most countries, including the big four, the business c... - (source:
BNP Paribas Wealth Management publishes report on international real estate
Tue, 27 Mar 2018 17:04:38 +0200
The report advises private investors: To regard real estate investment primarily as a useful means of portfolio diversification and only to a lesser extent as a source of capital performance. To hold a portfolio of real estate assets spread across different segments and countries in order to diversi... - (source:
7 days of Economics-US: FOMC (a)symmetries
Fri, 23 Mar 2018 15:50:03 +0100
The FOMC has an asymmetrical loss function: avoiding a recession is more important than avoiding the risk of overheating With this comes the necessity of a symmetrical inflation objective: a temporary overshooting is acceptable Given the unclear relationship between unemployment and inflation, the F... - (source:
7 days of Economics: Into the maze of trade disputes
Fri, 16 Mar 2018 17:01:58 +0100
The IMF and the OECD have expressed concern about rising trade tensions At the macro level, tariffs create a lose-losesituation but the sector impact varies a lot  Beyond the direct economic effect, the impact on inflation and financial marketsshould also be taken into accountThe biggest concer... - (source:
7 days of Economics - ECB: predictable projections create dovish bias
Tue, 13 Mar 2018 14:56:10 +0100
Core inflation projections by the ECB have followed a surprisingly predictable path Starting at close to but below 2% for long horizons, they decline as the remaining horizon shortens   The big difference between the projections at long horizons and the eventual outcome implies they provid... - (source:
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